TheRussia-Ukraineconflict,whichbeganmorethan15monthsago,hascausedimmensesufferingtothepeopleofUkrainewhilehurtingtheRussianeconomy.TheUS,afterpushingUkraineintotheconflict,eventuallyrefrainedfromdirectmilitaryconfrontationwithRussia.TheUS"questionableroleintheconflictanditsevildesigntocomparetheUkrainecrisiswiththeTaiwanquestionhaveraised"doubts"amongTaiwanresidentsthattheislandmayfaceafatesimilartoUkraine.

However,thenatureofcross-TaiwanStraitrelationsandtheTaiwanquestionarefundamentallydifferentfromRussia-UkrainerelationsandtheUkrainecrisis.Tobeginwith,RussiaandUkrainearetwosovereignnations,whilecross-Straitrelationsarethosebetweendifferentregionsofthesamesovereigncountry,China.

(相关资料图)

TheUkrainecrisisisaboutonecountry"sactionsendangeringthesecurityofanothercountry,whereastheTaiwanquestioninvolvesthecollusionofexternalforceswiththeaimofsplittingTaiwanfromthemotherland,therebyunderminingthecountry"ssovereigntyandterritorialintegrityandnationalsecurity.

Beijinghasconsistentlyopposed"Taiwanindependence"andexternalforces"interferenceinthecountry"sinternalaffairs,whichisexactlywhattheTaiwanquestionis.TherearecertainprinciplesthatshouldbeabidedbyallcountriesthathavediplomaticrelationswithBeijing.Theyshouldacknowledgetheone-ChinaprinciplethatthereisonlyoneChinaandTaiwanisanintegralpartofChina,andneverallowseparatistsontheislandtoseek"independence".Moreimportant,BeijingwillnotsitidlybywhileseparatistforcesinTaiwancolludewithforeignanti-Beijingforcesinabidtoseparatetheislandfromthemotherland.

Infact,BeijinghasalreadyenactedtheAnti-SecessionLaw.Accordingtothelaw,ifthe"Taiwanindependence"secessionistforcesactunderanynameorbyanymeanstocausethefactofTaiwan"ssecessionfromChina,orifmajorincidentsentailingTaiwan"ssecessionfromChinashouldoccur,orthepossibilitiesforapeacefulreunificationshouldbecompletelyexhausted,thestateshallemploynon-peacefulmeansandothernecessarymeasurestoprotectChina"ssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.

Besides,theChinesemainlandhasthecapabilityanddeterminationtopreventtheisland"sseparatistforcesfromseeking"independence".BeijingmaynotyetbeonparwithWashingtoninoverallmilitarystrength,butthelatternolongerholdstheadvantageinscenariossuchasacross-Straitconflict.

Infact,ifthemainlandweretoresorttotheuseofforcetosuppressseparatistforcesontheislandandachievenationalreunification,evenaUS-ledinternationalinterventioncannotpreventit.ThisisthefundamentalreasonwhytheUSmaintainsstrategicambiguityontheTaiwanquestionandrefusestomakeclearitsstanceonthe"defending-Taiwan-with-force"issue.

GiventhesignificanttangiblebenefitsitderivesfromSino-USrelations,Washingtonneedstoweighthepotentialconsequencesofopenlyexpressingsupportforthe"Taiwanindependence"forces,becauseitcouldpotentiallyforceBeijingtoseverdiplomatictieswithit.Also,thefactthatthemainlandiscapableofcausingseriousharmtotheUShaspromptedAmericanleaderstoconsidertheimmensecostthatacross-StraitorSino-USconflictwouldentail.

NowondertheUS,ontheonehand,usesvariousstrategies,includingplayingthe"Taiwancard",toprovokeBeijing,while,ontheotherhand,itseeksdialoguewithseniorChineseofficialsandpromisesthe"fivenoes"(thatis,itdoesnotseekanewColdWar,doesnotseektochangeChina"ssystem,doenotseektoconfrontChinathroughstrengthenedalliances,doesnotsupport"Taiwanindependence",anddoesnotseekconflictwithChina).

TheUS,itappears,isnotwillingtoseverdiplomatictieswithChina,inordertosupporttheisland"sseparatiststoseek"independence"norisitwillingtoengageinamutuallydestructivemilitaryconflictwithChina.

Ifthatisso,theUSshouldstopsayingonethinganddoingtheexactopposite.ItshouldalsostopsendingwrongsignalstotheseparatistforcesinTaiwan.The"Taiwanindependence"forcesarewellawarethatanyattempttoseektheirseparatistgoalwillinevitablyleadtoacross-Straitconflict,whichthemajorityofTaiwanresidentsdonotwant.That"swhytheisland"sseparatistforcesrelyonUS-ledWesternsupporttoachievetheirevilgoal.

TheUSisplayingthe"Taiwancard"toencirclethemainland,givingthe"Taiwanindependence"forcesthathavelongedforUSsupportsomehope.InordertoobtainUSsupport,the"Taiwanindependence"forcesandtherulingDemocraticProgressivePartyauthoritiesarenotonlywillingtobecomepawnsintheUS"geopoliticalgame,butalsosupporttheestablishmentofUS-ledalliancesintheregionaspartoftheireffortstocauseabreakdowninSino-USrelations,thusforcingtheUStointervenemilitarilyto"defend"Taiwan.

ThisdoesnotalignwiththeinterestsoftheUS.NorwillChinaallowthistohappen.

TheauthorisaprofessorattheTaiwanResearchCenter,XiamenUniversity.Theviewsdon"tnecessarilyrepresentthoseofChinaDaily.

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